Lula Holds Narrow Lead Over Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil Election Poll

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is still ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the race for Brazil’s presidency, but the gap between the two remains very small. A new Datafolha poll released on Friday showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 46% to 44% in a possible second-round election.

The latest figures are unchanged from the previous Datafolha survey, showing that the race remains too close to call. Lula also leads Bolsonaro in the first round, although Bolsonaro has gained support and narrowed the difference between the two candidates ahead of the October election.

Bolsonaro Gains Ground in First Round

In the first-round scenario, Lula received 39% support, compared with 35% for Bolsonaro. Lula’s support increased slightly from 38% in the previous poll, while Bolsonaro’s rose from 33%. The four-point gap is within the poll’s two-point margin of error.

Augusto Cury was in third place with 6% support, followed by Ronaldo Caiado with 4%. Renan Santos had 3%, while Romeu Zema received 2%. Other candidates received around 1% each.

• Lula maintains narrow lead over Flavio Bolsonaro in Brazil election poll
• Datafolha shows Lula ahead 46%-44% in a possible presidential runoff
• Brazil election remains too close to call as Bolsonaro gains first-round support

The Datafolha survey was conducted from September 8 to 10 and included 2,002 voters. Its margin of error is two percentage points, meaning the two-point difference between Lula and Bolsonaro in the projected runoff is statistically very narrow.

Race Remains Open Ahead of October Vote

The poll comes at an important stage of the campaign, with candidates preparing for the final weeks before Brazilians head to the polls. Lula is seeking another term in office, while Flavio Bolsonaro is trying to strengthen the political influence of the Bolsonaro family and its supporters.

Other recent surveys have also shown a closely contested race. A Quaest poll released earlier this month showed Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro tied at 41% each in a possible second-round matchup. The different results from recent polls highlight how uncertain the Brazil presidential race remains.

For Bolsonaro, the increase in first-round support is an encouraging sign. He will now look to attract voters supporting smaller candidates and those who remain undecided. A stronger performance in the first round could also give his campaign greater momentum heading into a potential runoff.

Lula, meanwhile, continues to have the advantage in the latest Datafolha numbers. However, his lead is small enough that the result cannot be taken for granted. The president will also need to maintain his support while working to win over undecided voters.

With the election approaching, both candidates are likely to focus on issues that matter most to voters, including the Brazilian economy, jobs, public services and the direction of Brazil’s government.

The latest Datafolha poll suggests that Lula remains the candidate to beat, but Bolsonaro is closing the gap. With only a small difference separating them, the Brazil election 2026 is shaping up to be a closely fought contest.