Trzaskowski Leads Exit Poll in Tight Poland Election

Key Highlights:

• Exit poll shows Trzaskowski with 50.3 percent, Nawrocki at 49.7 percent.
• Election seen as a choice between EU ties and nationalism.
• Trzaskowski backs Ukraine’s NATO bid; Nawrocki opposes it.

The results of an exit poll showed that Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski was just ahead in Poland’s presidential election on Sunday, with people’s support for Europe and Trump-style nationalism as the main issue at stake.

According to an Ipsos exit poll done for TVN, TVP and Polsat, Trzaskowski from the ruling Civic Coalition (KO) was supported by 50.3 percent of the voters. His main opponent, Karol Nawrocki, was a conservative and former amateur boxer and he led in the polls with the support of Law and Justice (PiS), with a result of 49.7 percent. Nomenclature official results were to be published on Sunday, but an overnight poll might include some official and surveys from voters. The exit poll is not without errors and the margin for error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Trzaskowski, age 53, emphasized during his campaign that he would help complete Prime Minister Tusk’s reforms which both men agree aim to restore the balance between the government’s branches after many checks and balances were undermined under the nation’s former nationalist government which remained in power until 2023. “We won,” he told jubilant party members after the exit surveys came out. “I will bring people together, I will be constructive, I will be a president for all Poles. I will be your president.”

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Parliament is mainly in charge in Poland, though the president can still block legislative changes and that has attracted close attention from Ukraine, Russia, the US and across Europe. They both agreed to devote a large budget to European security, just as Donald Trump demands and continue to assist Ukraine in its battle against Russia. But although Trzaskowski believes Polish security depends on Ukraine joining the alliance, Nawrocki has said that if he were president, he would vote against membership because Poland might face war with Russia as a NATO ally. According to Nawrocki, especially because he looks to Trump and the MAGA movement, the race was still not over.

“We will win and we will save Poland. We will not allow for Donald Tusk’s power to be all-encompassing and the monopoly of evil power … which takes away our great dreams …to become complete.”